EU Strategy White Paper
With respect, it is more about managing the status quo and lacking in ambition and scope and undersells the possibilities.
In this post, I present a sixth scenario which I would like the EU to consider. This is radically different and would allow the EU to play a central and pole position in the future global economy and politic.
Future of Europe: Scenario Six
1. Rationale
The current White Paper feels to be more about managing the
status quo and lacking in ambition and scope and undersells the possibilities
and to an extent is about managing a gradual erosion of the EU role in the
world.
2. EU Label is an
implicit barrier move to a different label - GU
The label “European” is now becoming an implicit limiter of
ambition and scope. I propose that the EU change itself from the “European
Union” to the “Global Union” (GU).
3. Expansion beyond
the continent of Europe
The EU is more about the concept and vision of people rising
above petty nationalistic desires and thinking of the broader global good. In
that sense it is more of an emotional vision and journey than a narrow
mercantilist “what’s in it for me” attitude. In that context, it makes no sense
to limit the EU to only the continent of Europe.
I propose that the following countries be invited to join
the GU as full members:
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
Israel
Japan
Singapore
South Korea
4. Creating a Tiered
/ Staged system to encourage further entrants
Between the start of the process of joining the GU to
finally becoming a full GU member can take many years. During this period
governments may change and politicians pushing for GU membership have little to
show and their electorates will only put up with the “Jam Tomorrow” message for
that long. If new governments get elected they may entirely take the GU
membership off the agenda. (e.g. Turkey).
A Staged system is proposed where the stages represent
partial membership of the GU. Each of the stage would have defined criteria
that need to be met for the country to be given this partial stage of
membership. The decision of which stage the entrant has reached would be a
technocratic decision and not a political one, and as the candidate nation
progresses in its civil systems and governance it would seamlessly move up the
stage ladder.
Four stages of S20, S40, S60 and S80 are envisaged
corresponding to a 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% membership, with the next stage after
S80 being S100 or full membership of the GU.
As countries progress up the stage ladder, the progressively
gain further GU benefits, eg a progressive lowering of barriers to trade and
free movement of people with the rest of the GU. Of course if they backslide in their governance, then they can move backwards too e.g. from a S80 to S60.
Once the Staged System is in place, it makes the GU
attractive to a wider audience as the politicians in potential candidates can
see that they can get benefits within the term of their own government. It also
protects the GU against having to give full membership to countries whose civil
systems and governance are not yet matured to allow full GU membership.
This approach creates a powerful force for innovation and
change in the entrant countries as although G100 (or full membership) may be
many years or even a decade or two off, they can aspire to G20 and achieve it
within a single parliament term.
5. The Staged System
will grow GU Influence in Emerging Markets
Once this staged procedure is in place, countries from
emerging economies could be invited to enter talks and move towards becoming
S20 members, including the following:
India
Brazil
Argentina
Mexico
South Africa
As these are all emerging economics with growing populations this would
help them to further develop but also help the GU to maintain and grow its
influence in more rapidly growing economies, and is a win-win for both parties.
6. The Impact of this Sixth Scenario
on the GU and the World
Rather than managing an eroding influence and relatively speaking a
slow and gradual decline, as would be the case in the other five Scenarios,
this Sixth Scenario is positive and with growth and expansion allows the GU to
increase its influence and presence around the globe.
With many problems being cross national and global in nature, it
uniquely positions the GU to play a leadership role in setting the agenda and
resolving these issues, such as climate change, military / nuclear build up,
trade etc
This strategy enables the GU to be a huge and powerful catalyst and agent
of progress towards better democracies, governance and civil societies around the world
creating a powerful upward spiral of change and progress and benefit to all the
citizens within the GU nations. In effect it is directly exporting good
governance around the world with huge benefits to all.
It would in time allow the GU with its increased demographic and
economic heft to become a more powerful and influential integrated unit than
the current so called super powers of United States, China and Russia which
would stand out like dinosaurs and as legacy relics of history, until they too
face the inevitable and join the GU.
7. Political Demands of the
Sixth Scenario
The previous five scenarios are pretty much tinkering with the status
quo and rather timid and not too exciting to get people engaged. It is also
something that really only needs everyday technocratic politicians to deliver.
The sixth scenario is something that would capture the imagination of
all the peoples of Europe, as well as the world, and engage them emotionally,
and would need politicians who can rise to the challenge and who would
certainly go down in history as great statesmen and stateswomen.
